Who will win Vanderbilt basketball vs Tennessee in SEC rivalry? Our prediction

Who will win Vanderbilt basketball vs Tennessee in SEC rivalry? Our prediction

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Vanderbilt basketball is set to take on rival Tennessee for the first time this season as the Vols visit Memorial Gymnasium.

The No. 18 Commodores (21-5, 8-5 SEC) are coming off a loss at Mizzou. Tennessee (19-7, 9-4) has won home games against LSU and Oklahoma most recently.

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Vanderbilt has been successful against the Vols at home recently, having won two of the last three matchups at Memorial Gymnasium. Last season, the Commodores split two games with Tennessee, winning the home matchup but dropping the road matchup.

Here is our prediction for the matchup:

Nate Ament is the player to watch

The 6-foot-10 Nate Ament has been the focal point of much of what Tennessee does this season. He is the Vols’ leading scorer with 18.2 points per game, but he isn’t a traditional big despite his size. He is especially deadly from midrange and can shoot 3-pointers while also averaging 6.4 rebounds per game and having a positive assist-to-turnover ratio.

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Ament also gets to the free-throw line a lot, which could prove a handful for Vanderbilt’s bigs, Devin McGlockton and Jalen Washington, both of whom have been prone to foul trouble this season. With other bigs on the roster for the Vols, the Commodores may struggle with the sheer size of Tennessee.

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Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt basketball guard for Commodores, Mark Byington

Vanderbilt Commodores guard Tyler Tanner (3) goes up for a layup as Auburn Tigers take on Vanderbilt Commodores at Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala. on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026.

The Jaylen Carey storyline

Jaylen Carey made waves when he transferred to Tennessee from Vanderbilt but also criticized Mark Byington and the Commodores’ coaching staff. While players have transferred between the Vols and Commodores in other sports, Carey is the first in men’s basketball.

Carey has been a role player for Tennessee. He averages 7.8 points and six rebounds per game and shoots just 49% from the field despite having only attempted five 3-pointers all season.

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Carey made a big impact in Vanderbilt’s games against the Vols last season and perhaps the matchup could be a motivator for him.

Rebounding is something to watch

Tennessee’s biggest strength as a team is that it is No. 1 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, or the percentage of its own missed shots that it rebounds. The Vols are not particularly good at shooting and don’t take care of the basketball particularly well − both strengths of Vanderbilt’s − but they generate extra possessions. Rebounding has often been a problem for Vanderbilt. The Commodores will either need to show improvement on the boards or make a high percentage of shots to make up for it.

How to watch Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee: Time, TV channel, live stream

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Vanderbilt vs Tennessee injury updates

Duke Miles and Frankie Collins both missed the game against Missouri with injuries. It is possible that Miles could return for this game, but if he does it will likely not be at 100%.

JP Estrella missed Tennessee’s last game against Oklahoma and is day-to-day.

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction

Vanderbilt 75, Tennessee 69

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on X @aria_gerson.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Vanderbilt basketball vs Tennessee prediction, picks in SEC showdown

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